Today's agenda
  • January data analysis — Jian Chee
  • Member Habit Formation Strategy — Ed/Lydia
  • March Social Media: Design direction — Yong Kiat/Ed
  • Others:
  • Global Holidays <> Star Vista collab
  • CNY PR news release + Influencer marketing
Next week's agenda
  • EPOS Issues and Tracking
  • WATI WhatsApp Cost
  • Are we spending too much? (Dec analysis)
  • Are there other cost-effective communication methods (Email, WhatsApp community, etc.)
Habit Formation Strategy
Unlocking Customer Value Through Behavioral Progression
Unlocking Customer Value: The Habit Formation Funnel
Looking at just December sales report…
55%
Spending Increase
3-visit vs 2-visit customers
98%
Spending Increase
3-visit vs 1-visit customers
12,473
Addressable Customers
Our data reveals a critical inflection point: customers who complete three visits spend dramatically more than those who stop at one or two. By strategically moving customers through this habit-formation funnel, we can unlock substantial incremental revenue whilst building lasting customer relationships that drive long-term value for PAWA Bakery.
The Habit Formation Progression
Looking at just December sales report…
First visit
1 visit | 10,349 members (74.8%)
$5.77 average spend
Second visit
2 visits | 2,124 members (15.4%)
$7.37 average spend (+27%)
Third visit
3 visits | 681 members (4.9%)
$11.41 average spend (+55%)
Established Habit
4-5 visits | 464 members (3.4%)
$19.12 average spend
Strong Habit
6+ visits | 214 members (1.5%)
$29.23 average spend

Key Insight: The 3rd visit is the critical turning point where customer value nearly doubles. Once customers cross this gate, they naturally progress to weekly visits and significantly higher spending patterns.
Where We Are — The Gap
Current Customer Distribution
Our customer base shows significant opportunity for progression. Whilst 1,359 customers have already formed habitual behaviour, over 12,473 customers remain stuck at the first and second purchase stages—representing material untapped value.
The Opportunity: Move Customers Through the Funnel
  • 1-visit → 3-visit:
  • 2-visit → 3-visit:
  • Total addressable:
    12,473 customers
VALIDATING THE INFLECTION POINT
Do 3rd-Visit Customers Really Progress to 4th, 5th, 6th Visits?
We tracked customers who reached their 3rd visit by specific dates, then measured what percentage went on to make 4th, 5th, and 6th visits within the remaining days of December. This approach controls for "time available" and eliminates selection bias.
Results: The 3rd Visit Inflection Point is Real
What This Tells Us
Key Finding: Once customers reach their 3rd visit, they transition from sporadic to recurring buyers:
  • Immediate progression: 69–84% of 3-visit customers make a 4th visit (depending on time available)
  • Continuous progression: 41–66% go on to a 5th visit
This is not correlation—this is genuine behavioral change. The propensity rates prove that:
  • The 3rd visit truly is the gate where customers shift from trial to habit
  • Once customers pass through, they keep coming back without additional prompting (in many cases)
  • Our PWP offer to move 1-2 visit customers to visit 3 unlocks a high-probability pathway to recurring revenue
Time-Controlled Cohort Analysis: Comparing Progression Rates Across Visit Levels
The Rigorous Test
To definitively prove that visit 3 is an inflection point (not just steady progression), we created time-controlled cohorts where every customer had the same opportunity window to make their next visit.
Methodology: Equal Time Windows for Fair Comparison
We tracked three groups of customers:
  • Cohort 1: Customers whose 1st visit was December 19-20 (had 11 days remaining to make a 2nd visit)
  • Cohort 2: Customers whose 2nd visit was December 19-20 (had 11 days remaining to make a 3rd visit)
  • Cohort 3: Customers whose 3rd visit was December 19-20 (had 11 days remaining to make a 4th visit)
By using the same narrow date window for all three cohorts, everyone had approximately 11 days to make their next visit. This eliminates the time-bias and reveals true behavioral differences.
Results: The Progression Rate ACCELERATES at Visit 3
What This Proves
The data shows a clear inflection point:
  • 1st → 2nd transition: Only 1 in 7 customers who visit once return for a second visit. Most are one-time purchasers.
  • 2nd → 3rd transition: This jumps to 1 in 3 customers.
  • 3rd → 4th transition: Reaches 1 in 2 customers (51.4%)— +17.6 percentage point increase. This is the inflection point. Once customers reach visit 3, their behavior fundamentally changes.
Why This Matters for Strategy
The progression rate accelerates at the 3rd visit with consistent ~17 percentage point jumps between each level.
This proves:
  • Visit 3 is a genuine behavioral threshold, not an artifact of data selection or time bias
  • Customers who reach visit 3 are fundamentally different from those stuck at 1-2 visits
  • Our strategy to "unlock visit 3" is targeting the right inflection point in the customer journey
Baseline data validates: Once customers make it to visit 3, they're 1.5x more likely to continue visiting compared to the 2→3 transition, and 3.6x more likely than the 1→2 transition.
Recommendation:
PWP (Purchase with Purchase) +
Premium Product (Pistachio Toast) Offer
Target Audience:
  • 12,473 First and second-visit members
  • After first purchase, drop the voucher. Notify members.
  • After the second purchase, remind members.
The Offer:
  • Make any purchase and receive Pistachio Toast ($8.80 retail value) for just $5.
  • Valid for 5-7 days to create urgency.
Why This Works
  • Directly targets the critical habit-formation gate (Third visit)
  • Introduces premium product (brand elevation without lowering regular pricing)
  • Aligns with 5-7 day visit cycle
Financial Impact Scenarios
13%
Conservative
1,672 conversions ($16,766.88/month)
25%
Optimistic
3,132 conversions ($31,625/month)
Success Metrics
What We Need
1
EPOS capability
Determine what is the best approach to drive 3 visits within EPOS's capability set.
2
Offer strength
Determine what is the right promotion to drive 3 visits
Primary Metrics
Test Window
Evaluation Period: 60 days (March - April)
  • Do we see the cohort performance improve vs. the December baseline?
Membership Activation - Next Steps
  • Analysis: Improve the analysis by widening the data set (Sept - Jan)
  • Phase 1: Implementation
  • Phase 2: New Membership program redesign
Phase 1: Habit-formation Campaign
PWP + Premium Product Purchase
Target: 1-2 visit members
Goal: 3rd visit conversion
Phase 2: Membership Program Redesign
VIP Membership Tier (TBD)
Target: 3+ visit members
Goal: Establish 4-5 visit weekly rhythm
The Result
Move 4,4K customers through the habit-formation funnel to generate $10K - $35K monthly incremental revenue (depending on conversion rates), creating sustainable growth whilst strengthening customer relationships and lifetime value.
Next Week Agenda
  • EPOS Issues and Tracking
  • WATI WhatsApp Cost
  • Are we spending too much? (Dec analysis)
  • Are there other cost-effective communication methods (Email, WhatsApp community, etc.)
WATI WhatsApp Cost
Are we spending too much? (Dec analysis)
Findings
  • 27% (2,829) who (10,459) received the WATI message made a purchase.
  • But only 1,601 read the message. So 1,228 purchase without reading the WATI promotion.
  • So at $1,162 (10,566 message), we received 1,601 member purchased at SGD $33,211.57 (7,746 transactions)
  • This is a Return on WATI spend (ROAS) of 28.6x

For every SGD $1 spent on the WATI campaign, we generated SGD $28.59 in revenue from customers who read the message.